Virtual Library

Our virtual library is an online repository of all of the reports, papers, and briefings that IST has produced, as well as works that have influenced our thinking.

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Reports

A Lifecycle Approach to AI Risk Reduction: Tackling the Risk of Malicious Use Amid Implications of Openness

Louie Kangeter

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Memo

Testimony: Red Alert: Countering the Cyberthreat from China

Steve Kelly

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Reports

Ransomware Task Force: Doubling Down

Ransomware Task Force

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Reports

Information Sharing in the Ransomware Payment Ecosystem: Exploring the Delta Between Best Practices and Existing Mechanisms

Zoë Brammer

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Memo

Testimony: Held for Ransom: How Ransomware Endangers Our Financial System

Megan Stifel

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Memo

Roadmap to Potential Prohibition of Ransomware Payments

Ransomware Task Force Co-Chairs

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Reports

Unlocking U.S. Technological Competitiveness: Evaluating Initial Solutions to Public-Private Misalignments

Ben Purser, Pavneet Singh

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

SUBMIT CONTENT

NC3 in a Multipolar Nuclear World: Big Structures and Large Processes

Paul Bracken

SUMMARY

In this essay, Paul Bracken analyzes the big structures and large processes of nuclear multipolarity. A framework for analyzing this global system is developed, one made up of national command and control plus the “system dynamics” of their interlinked behavior. The paper underscores how advanced technologies — cyberwar, drones, and anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) — affects NC3. The structures include the national command and control of at least eighteen countries, to include nine nuclear weapon states, “shared” weapons in NATO, missile defense, and key intelligence nodes in select countries. Processes include the delegated flow of launch authority, innovation, and digitization in many forms.

The paper specifically assesses the two big structures that are forming in Europe and Asia. NATO is attempting to modernize its nuclear deterrent for the new realities of European security. In Asia, a pentapolar structure of major powers (United States, Russia, China, India, and Japan) has growing nuclear interactions: in missile defense, cyber, space, and in upsetting the U.S.–Russia strategic balance. The critical importance of information transfer for bolstering a coalition member’s ability to target its nuclear forces is analyzed as an example of the “new” dynamics of multipolarity.

This paper is accompanied by a Fourth Leg podcast: Grand Tactics and The Thin Skin of Civilization.

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