SUMMARY

As global norms are challenged and emerging technologies accelerate, crisis communication systems between nuclear-armed states face urgent new threats. Designed to prevent escalation, these channels are increasingly vulnerable to both technical interference (e.g., cyber attacks, deepfakes) and diplomatic misuse (e.g., refusal to respond, use for coercion). This report identifies four critical scenarios and outlines a matched set of mitigation strategies designed to reinforce the reliability of crisis communications in high-stakes environments.

Introduction

Crisis communications channels, such as hotlines between heads of state or military leaders, have long played a vital role in diffusing nuclear risk. Today, that role is more urgent than ever. The world is at an inflection point regarding a secure and peaceful future; the United Nations Disarmament Affairs Chief warned in 2023 that the current risk of nuclear weapons use is “higher than at any time since the Cold War.” The UN Common Agenda for Peace, released at the beginning of 2023, envisions improved collective security through open international cooperation and communication, among other methods. Global leaders must heed its calls.

But real-world engagement is eroding. Diplomatic and crisis communication channels, designed to prevent conflict and clarify intentions, are increasingly susceptible to political manipulation and technical exploitation. Russia’s withdrawal from arms control forums, China’s refusal to respond after the 2023 US surveillance balloon incident, and a growing reliance on ambiguous or coercive signals, all reflect a dangerous trend: breakdowns in communication when it matters most.

Crisis communication failures may arise from deliberate refusals to engage, strategic misuse for coercive signaling, or attempts to exploit system vulnerabilities such as spoofing or network sabotage. These failures, whether driven by human decisions or infrastructural weaknesses, undermine the credibility and reliability of crisis communication channels, eroding a key safeguard against miscalculation and escalation during moments of heightened tension.