In an era of deepening political tensions, how should states mitigate the risk of nuclear crises and conflicts? 

Last week at the United Nations headquarters in New York, the Institute for Security Technology (IST) and Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP) hosted a dialogue on preventing and managing nuclear crises at the third session of the UN’s Preparatory Committee for the 2026 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

The event, sponsored by the German Federal Foreign Office (AA) and the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), opened with an introduction from FDFA Deputy Head for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Cybersecurity Reto Wollenmann, and welcome remarks from Germany’s Deputy Federal Government Commissioner for Disarmament and Arms Control Amb. Susanne Riegraf and Switzerland’s Permanent Representative to the Conference on Disarmament Amb. Julien Thöni.

In his opening remarks, Wollenmann emphasized the global collaboration on risk reduction measures, and offered context for the day’s discussion.    

“We’re here because, in recent years, we’ve observed how increasingly complex and fragile security environments, rising geopolitical tensions, and growing mistrust among key actors have contributed to a drastic deterioration of the arms control landscape,” he said. “It is imperative that we work together to prevent escalations that could spiral out of control.” 

Reaffirming Germany’s commitment to supporting risk reduction efforts, Amb. Riegraf noted the recent increase in international engagement on the topic, which she credits to its focus on preventing unintended escalation.   

“Risk reduction offers policy solutions, responding to various different security needs, decoupled from geopolitical competition tensions and irrespective of particular security perceptions,” she explained. 

Amb. Thöni outlined Switzerland’s core considerations in its nuclear risk reduction work, including the global shared interest in reducing such risks because of the grave consequences at stake, the worsening geopolitical context, and a commitment to nuclear disarmament.

“In such a fragile environment with increased tension and mistrust, we must all work together to uphold the nuclear taboo and prevent any form of nuclear escalation, whether deliberate or accidental,” he said. 

IST Senior Policy Advisor and Swiss national NPT delegation advisor Sahil V. Shah started the panel discussion by highlighting the complementarity of IST and VCDNP initiatives, and their relevance considering current dynamics amongst P5 nations and other nuclear-armed states. He implored the P5 to resume results-oriented risk reduction dialogue, deepen conversations on nuclear doctrines, and begin talks to consider  how an increasingly AI-driven security environment will reshape strategic stability. 

“Risk reduction is a process, and the process itself has value, but it must point towards outcomes,” he said. “Sometimes movement might be slow, but a lack of any movement is simply irresponsible and reckless.” 

Next, VCDNP Senior Fellow Nikolai Sokov presented a recent joint paper, Reimagining Risk Reduction: Adapting Cold War Tools to Manage 21st Century Strategic Instability, co-authored with Shah, David Santoro, and Miles Pomper. Sokov explained why he and his co-authors believe that there is an urgent need for an expanded toolbox of risk reduction, confidence building, and transparency measures. He noted that a new risk reduction infrastructure would allow for a more formalized, streamlined, responsive, and flexible communication network, including at the leader-level, through a system like IST’s CATALINK concept. 

“The existing risk reduction system does not address the majority of weapons that may be used in regional conflicts, both conventional and nuclear… [it] does not address the majority of contingencies, and the communication links are not sufficient to quickly de-escalate conventional conflicts,” he said. “We should not dismantle the old system, no, but we need major upgrades.” 

IST Chief Executive Officer Philip Reiner and Deputy Director of Nuclear Policy Sylvia Mishra closed the panel with a presentation on the CATALINK initiative and discussion of IST’s ongoing work at the nexus of emerging technologies and nuclear weapons, including a recent convening on the integration of AI in nuclear command, control, and communications systems (NC3) systems.

Mishra began her remarks by noting that, as the panelists spoke, tensions between India and Pakistan were escalating, and would later culminate in conflict. While India had, at the time, suspended all existing Confidence Building Measures with Pakistan, the two states’ nuclear communications channel remained open. 

“This is to showcase and underscore that communication lines serve as a crucial mechanism for maintaining dialogue and potentially de-escalating tensions,” she said. 

Mishra went on to explain the development of the concept and the technical elements of CATALINK as a solution to one of the gaps in the current crisis communication architecture. 

“We do not want the CATALINK system to replace existing crisis communication structures,” she said. “The CATALINK system is designed to be additive in nature…with a focus on multilateral crisis communication.”

Reiner warned against the potential negative implications of the integration of AI into NC3 systems, which he predicted will fundamentally change the status quo on decision-making.   

“The nature of complex AI systems, I think, as everyone in the room is aware, raises concerns about the quality of data, the trust that one puts in these complicated systems, and the predictability of them in extremely high stakes environments,” he said.

After the panel, IST hosted a private, high-level dinner, sponsored by Switzerland, with representatives from the VCDNP, to allow for additional diplomacy on risk reduction. High-level attendees included UN Under-Secretary-General and High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu, and a regionally diverse group of heads of delegations from nuclear and non-nuclear weapons states. Amb. Thöni welcomed guests, before IST’s Shah moderated an open discussion. The night also featured keynote remarks from esteemed former U.S. Ambassador Thomas Pickering. The rich dinner discussion built on the side-event dialogue with key decision-makers at the table. 

While at the conference, members of the IST team met bilaterally with various countries to provide updates on in-house research and identify avenues for future collaboration. The team also shared recommendations directly to governments, including at a closed event hosted at the French Mission to the UN, where Shah placed an emphasis on crisis communications as a highly desirable area of further work.