Archive

Innovation and Catastrophic Risk

Integrating novel technical expertise to increase global stability and assess emerging risks

Searching for ways to mitigate the most severe risks introduced by technology, including those that pose existential threats to society, and striving to make technology itself a solution.

Focus area page

Meet the Andrew Carnegie AI-Nuclear Policy Accelerator Inaugural Cohort

Meet the Andrew Carnegie AI-Nuclear Policy Accelerator Inaugural Cohort

IST introduces the 26 members of the inaugural Andrew Carnegie AI-Nuclear Policy Accelerator cohort, a program that will equip mid-career security practitioners with the tools to confront the intersection between AI and nuclear issues.

AI, announcement, arms control, artificial intelligence, fellows, ICBM, modernization, nuclear, nuclear weapons

April 9, 2026

Crossed Wires and Rising Escalations: IST Hosts Workshop on Reinvigorating Nuclear Crisis Communications

Crossed Wires and Rising Escalations: IST Hosts Workshop on Reinvigorating Nuclear Crisis Communications

On February 18, 2026, the Institute for Security and Technology’s Nuclear Policy team convened for a workshop and scenario-based exercise titled “Reinvigorating Nuclear Crisis Communications in an Era of Emerging Technologies” with leading diplomats, policy experts, and technologists in Geneva, Switzerland.

arms control, crisis communications, escalation, mesh networks, New START, nuclear, risk reduction

March 9, 2026

Reinvigorating Crisis Communications in an Era of Emerging Technologies

February 18, 2026 12:00 am

Reinvigorating Crisis Communications in an Era of Emerging Technologies

In February 2026, IST’s CATALINK Initiative hosted a workshop in Geneva to connect with stakeholders on reinvigorating nuclear crisis communications in a new era of emerging technologies.

AI, Broker, crisis communications, encryption, hotlines, Puck

February 19, 2026

IST Launches the Andrew Carnegie AI–Nuclear Policy Accelerator

IST Launches the Andrew Carnegie AI–Nuclear Policy Accelerator

The Institute for Security and Technology (IST) is pleased to announce the launch of the Andrew Carnegie AI–Nuclear Policy Accelerator, a new, practitioner-focused initiative designed to strengthen decision-making at the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and nuclear policy.

AI, announcement, artificial intelligence, fellowship, NC3, nuclear policy, nuclear systems

February 10, 2026

New Video Narrated by Rose Gottemoeller Spotlights “CATALINK”: A Critical Blueprint for Secure, Multilateral Crisis Communications

New Video Narrated by Rose Gottemoeller Spotlights “CATALINK”: A Critical Blueprint for Secure, Multilateral Crisis Communications

Narrated by Rose Gottemoeller, former NATO Deputy Secretary General and U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, a new three-minute animated film live today introduces CATALINK. This groundbreaking initiative is a blueprint for a dedicated, last-resort communication system designed to be the ultimate backstop to prevent or cease nuclear war.

arms race, CATALINK, crisis communications, hotlines, mesh network, nuclear, Puck, risk reduction

December 17, 2025

AI and NC3 Initiative Enters Phase 2: Bridging Perspectives on Risks and Opportunities

AI and NC3 Initiative Enters Phase 2: Bridging Perspectives on Risks and Opportunities

IST, with support from Longview Philanthropy, is entering phase 2 of our efforts on the integration of artificial intelligence into nuclear command, control, and communications. In its next phase, the AI and NC3 initiative will establish an executive committee and 4 working groups, driving further research on competitive AI dynamics, global perspectives on AI-NC3, AI technical development and trajectories, and AI norms and governance.

AI, artificial intelligence, competitive AI, governance, NC3, norms, nuclear, strategic stability

December 11, 2025

Q&A: Approaching the Nuclear Brink?

Q&A: Approaching the Nuclear Brink?

With nuclear tensions on the rise, nuclear weapons have been in the headlines, and on our screens, lately. In the latest edition of the TechnologIST, IST’s Nuclear Policy team, Sylvia Mishra, Sahil V. Shah, Brandon Cortino, and Catherine Murphy discuss what the latest developments could mean for global security and stability.

AI, artificial intelligence, Moscow Treaty, NC3, New START Treaty, nuclear policy, nuclear weapons, strategic stability

November 24, 2025

Negotiating Stability: Reflections on CSIS’ Future Arms Control Experts (FACE) Program

Negotiating Stability: Reflections on CSIS’ Future Arms Control Experts (FACE) Program

IST Senior Associate for Nuclear Policy Brandon Cortino spent the last year as a fellow in the Center for Strategic and International Studies FACE cohort, which aims to train the next generation of arms control negotiators. He shares lessons learned from his study of the 2002 Moscow Treaty signed by Presidents Bush and Putin. “It is clear future treaties must consider the myriad threats posed by poor AI integration into nuclear command, control, and communications, and great powers must find common ground and rally against destabilizing technologies,” he writes.

George W. Bush, hypersonic missile, Moscow Treaty, NC3, New START, nuclear, Russia, treaty, Vladimir Putin

November 18, 2025

The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon – IST Hosts Book Talk with Author Ankit Panda

The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon – IST Hosts Book Talk with Author Ankit Panda

IST’s Nuclear Policy team hosted international security expert and author Ankit Panda in Palo Alto to learn more about his latest book unpacking the trilateral nuclear competition between the United States, China, and Russia. IST CEO Philip Reiner sat down for a fireside chat with Ankit, highlighting in their discussion the need to collectively identify political and technical solutions to address the nexus of emerging technologies and the new nuclear age.

AI, and communications, artificial inteligence, China, control, NC3, nuclear, nuclear command, nuclear risk, Russia, United States

November 17, 2025

Foreign Policy: Trump’s Vagueness Over Nuclear Testing Could Fuel an Arms Race

In the News, Op-ed

Foreign Policy: Trump’s Vagueness Over Nuclear Testing Could Fuel an Arms Race

The delicate balance of nuclear deterrence relies on clarity. But what happens when a major power embraces ambiguity on a core issue like weapons testing? IST Senior Policy Advisor Sahil V. Shah calls for clarification in a new op-ed in Foreign Policy.

arms race, deterrence, nuclear, nuclear weapons, strategic stability, testing

October 31, 2025

AI, NC3, and Strategic Stability: Scenario Exercise

AI, NC3, and Strategic Stability: Scenario Exercise

How might the integration of AI into global NC3 systems transform strategic stability and deterrence dynamics? In Washington, D.C. this spring, IST convened more than 60 senior officials, technical experts, and civil society actors for an in-depth analysis of the risks and opportunities of AI in NC3 using this scenario exercise.

adaptive targeting, AI, decision support, nuclear, nuclear command, scenario, strategic warning, TTX

October 16, 2025

Book Talk | The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon

October 23, 2025 2:00 pm

Book Talk | The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon

In a world with increasing nuclear dyads, can emerging technologies make us safer – or are we opening Pandora's Box? Join IST in Palo Alto, CA or virtually for a book talk with Ankit Panda.

AI, China, international security, NC3, nuclear, nuclear dyad, nuclear security, Russia

October 6, 2025

Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Command, Control & Communications: A Technical Primer

Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Command, Control & Communications: A Technical Primer

AI has been integral to nuclear weapons systems and operations for decades, but rapidly advancing “novel” models pose unforeseen technical opportunities. For the Institute for Security and Technology’s scenario-driven workshop on the integration of AI into NC3 systems, IST’s Sylvia Mishra and Philip Reiner co-authored a short primer to establish what constitutes 'novel' AI in the context of nuclear weapons decision-making.

AI, artificial intelligence, NC3, nuclear, system of systems

September 10, 2025

Here’s the Big Deal Trump and Putin Could Actually Reach in Alaska

Here’s the Big Deal Trump and Putin Could Actually Reach in Alaska

The meeting of Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska this week presents a rare and urgent opening for both leaders to make tangible progress on nuclear arms control, IST Senior Policy Advisor Sahil V. Shah and co-author IMEMO RAS research fellow Dmitry Stefanovich argue in Politico.

arms race, CATALINK, crisis communication, New START Treaty, Russia

August 15, 2025

IST Statement on President Trump’s AI Action Plan and Related Executive Orders

IST Statement on President Trump’s AI Action Plan and Related Executive Orders

In February, IST submitted comments in response to the Office of Science and Technology Policy’s request for information on the development of an AI Action Plan. We were heartened to see many of the key issues we raised reflected in the Trump Administration’s recent AI executive orders.

AI, artificial intelligence, chips, compute, distributed energy, energy security, export control, national security, risk reduction

July 25, 2025

Q&A: Separating the hype from reality

Q&A: Separating the hype from reality

Nuclear command, control, and communications systems are often called the “fourth leg” of the U.S. nuclear enterprise. In this month’s edition of the TechnologIST, IST Deputy Director of Nuclear Policy Sylvia Mishra joined us for a Q&A about IST’s recent primer on NC3 systems, drafted for a workshop focused on the integration of AI and NC3.

AI, NC3, nuclear

July 8, 2025