Atlas of Crisis Communications: Nuclear States

Leah Walker and Andrew Facini present an atlas of hotlines between states with nuclear weapons, part of IST’s work efforts to reinvigorate broader nuclear crisis control through research and development aimed at identifying and solving practical nuclear risk reduction gaps.

In the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to establish the world’s first bilateral nuclear “hotline.” The concept was simple: a reliable, direct connection between governments that could quickly transmit clear, trustworthy messages in times of tension. The idea of such a nuclear crisis communications link predated the 1962 crisis, and had been advocated for by Parade editor Jess Gorkin, seminal nuclear strategist Thomas Schelling, and others who were worried about nuclear escalation in the early years of the Cold War.

The Direct Communication Line (DCL) or MOLINK was established in June 1963 with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Moscow. Similar hotlines connecting to Moscow were soon established in Paris and London.

As the number of nuclear-armed states increased from the 1960s on, so too did the number of hotline connections established between them. The latter part of the 20th century saw the addition of the first India-Pakistan hotline, the first U.S.-China hotline, and the first China-Russia hotline. In the early 21st century, the hotline ecosystem continued to expand, including the first India-China hotline. Notably, the 21st century also saw the establishment of a hotline between the US and India, a rare dedicated nuclear hotline between allies.

Theater-specific “deescalation lines” between states also continue to be a feature of modern conflict. The U.S.-Russia deescalation line in Syria allowed for on-the-ground coordination between the two nuclear powers as troops operated in cotested environments. During the early part of the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war, the U.S. and Russia once again agreed to establish a dedicated deescalation line. The early 21st century also featured the development of a network of hotline links between North Korea and South Korea, which have continued to showcase the value of hotlines for risk reduction across many levels of conflict.

This atlas is part of IST’s work efforts to reinvigorate broader nuclear crisis control through research and development aimed at identifying and solving practical nuclear risk reduction gaps. This version is focused on the unique nature of hotlines between states with nuclear weapons. 

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