How will the integration of novel artificial intelligence into global nuclear command, control, and communication systems over the next five years transform strategic stability and deterrence dynamics?
To begin to answer this question, on April 10, 2025, the Institute for Security and Technology (IST) hosted the workshop, “The Risks and Opportunities of AI in NC3: Finding Common Ground” in Washington, DC.
This day-long, scenario-driven workshop convened more than 60 senior officials, technical experts, and civil society actors for an in-depth analysis of this crucial national security challenge. Together, the participants identified risks and opportunities presented by the potential integration of cutting-edge artificial intelligence capabilities into key dimensions of the nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) enterprise. As these AI tools rapidly evolve in their capabilities and applications, the workshop explored outstanding strategic, operational, and tactical level considerations at this critical technological intersection through carefully crafted scenarios designed to illuminate key policy and technical considerations.
Facilitated groups explored four hypothetical worlds featuring varying levels of AI integration, governance structures, and human oversight in NC3 operations, designed to illuminate risks and opportunities through various combinations:
- The AI Stability Zone
- AI Arms Race
- Human Controlled Stability
- Asymmetric Instability
Throughout the day, participants analyzed the implications of AI integration in NC3 operations within each of those worlds, focusing specifically on three key dimensions of NC3 operations:
- Strategic Warning
- Adaptive Targeting
- Decision Support systems
Importantly, this exercise uses hypothetical scenarios that are modeled along the lines of the current environment and future trajectories, and should not be viewed as fact. It walks participants through scenario development, implications for decision support, adaptive targeting, and strategic warning, and the resulting policy or research solutions that might be needed to address the integration of AI into nuclear command, control, and communications.
Ultimately, scenario authors Sylvia Mishra, Philip Reiner and Doug Randall aimed to generate discussions on how best to manage risks and leverage opportunities at the intersection of AI and nuclear weapons.
