Virtual Library

Our research repositories present a collection of open-source resources that showcase research and analysis that has directly influenced our initiatives. Non-IST publications are copyrighted by external authors not affiliated with IST.

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Reports

Combatting Ransomware: A Comprehensive Framework for Action: Key Recommendations from the Ransomware Task Force

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Reports

Future Digital Threats to Democracy – Trends and Drivers

Vera Zakem, Alexa Wehsener, Nina M. Miller

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Reports

Hotline Between Two Koreas: Status, Limitations and Future Tasks

Dr. Chung-in Moon and Boo Seung-Chan

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Reports

Building Communications Norms Across Nuclear C2

Dr. Salma Shaheen

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Reports

Nuclear Hotlines: Origins, Evolution, Applications

Steven E. Miller

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Reports

Formals Methods for NC3 Systems

Adam Wick

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Reports

Pay Attention

Alexa Wehsener

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

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Virtual Event and Live Q&A with Mr. Nand Mulchandani, Acting Director of the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center

NC3 and Crisis Instability – Growing Dangers in the 21st Century

Daryl Press

SUMMARY

For decades nuclear deterrence analysts have recognized the dangers of strategic instability and its more virulent cousin crisis instability. Strategic instability exists when one or more countries perceive that their nuclear arsenal may be vulnerable to attack. Faced with that danger, the vulnerable country may feel compelled to protect its arsenal, but its efforts to do so could trigger an arms race or even accidental or unauthorized nuclear war. These dangers are most acute during crises. The topic of strategic / crisis instability attracted substantial analysis during the Cold War, but that attention faded when the superpower standoff ended.

The problems of strategic instability may be returning in a particularly dangerous form. In this essay, Daryl Press focuses on the growing threats to nuclear command and control and communication (NC3) systems around the world and the links between vulnerable NC3 and strategic instability due to the risky steps that nuclear weapons states may adopt to protect their arsenals during crises or wars.

This paper is accompanied by a Fourth Leg podcast: The End of Survivability?

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