Virtual Library

Our virtual library is an online repository of all of the reports, papers, and briefings that IST has produced, as well as works that have influenced our thinking.

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Reports

Why Venture Capital Is Indispensable for U.S. Industrial Strategy: Activating Investors to Realize Disruptive National Capabilities

Michael Brown and Pavneet Singh

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Reports

The Implications of Artificial Intelligence in Cybersecurity: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance

Jennifer Tang, Tiffany Saade, Steve Kelly

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Fact Sheet

IST’s Efforts in the Age of AI: An Overview

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Reports

Unlocking U.S. Technological Competitiveness: Proposing Solutions to Public-Private Misalignments

Ben Purser, Pavneet Singh

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Articles

The Phone-a-Friend Option: Use Cases for a U.S.-U.K.-French Crisis Communication Channel

Daniil Zhukov

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Articles

China: Nuclear Crisis Communications and Risk Reduction

Dr. Tong Zhao

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Articles

Use-Cases of Resilient Nuclear Crisis Communications: A View from Russia

Dmitry Stefanovich

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

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NC3 and Crisis Instability – Growing Dangers in the 21st Century

Daryl Press

SUMMARY

For decades nuclear deterrence analysts have recognized the dangers of strategic instability and its more virulent cousin crisis instability. Strategic instability exists when one or more countries perceive that their nuclear arsenal may be vulnerable to attack. Faced with that danger, the vulnerable country may feel compelled to protect its arsenal, but its efforts to do so could trigger an arms race or even accidental or unauthorized nuclear war. These dangers are most acute during crises. The topic of strategic / crisis instability attracted substantial analysis during the Cold War, but that attention faded when the superpower standoff ended.

The problems of strategic instability may be returning in a particularly dangerous form. In this essay, Daryl Press focuses on the growing threats to nuclear command and control and communication (NC3) systems around the world and the links between vulnerable NC3 and strategic instability due to the risky steps that nuclear weapons states may adopt to protect their arsenals during crises or wars.

This paper is accompanied by a Fourth Leg podcast: The End of Survivability?

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