Virtual Library

Our virtual library is an online repository of all of the reports, papers, and briefings that IST has produced, as well as works that have influenced our thinking.

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Reports

Mapping Threat Actor Behavior in the Ransomware Payment Ecosystem: A Mini-Pilot

Zoë Brammer

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Reports

May 2023 Progress Report: Ransomware Task Force: Gaining Ground

Ransomware Task Force

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Reports

Castles Built on Sand: Towards Securing the Open-Source Software Ecosystem

Zoë Brammer, Silas Cutler, Marc Rogers, Megan Stifel

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Reports

Cyber Incident Reporting Framework: Global Edition

Cyber Threat Alliance, Institute for Security and Technology

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Reports

AI-NC3 Integration in an Adversarial Context: Strategic Stability Risks and Confidence Building Measures

Alexa Wehsener, Andrew W. Reddie, Leah Walker, Philip Reiner

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Op-ed

The Nuclear Risk Reduction Approach: A Useful Path Forward for Crisis Mitigation

Sylvia Mishra

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Reports

Nuclear Crisis Communications: Mapping Risk Reduction Implementation Pathways

Sylvia Mishra

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

SUBMIT CONTENT

NC3 Systems and Strategic Stability: A Global Overview

Insitute for Security and Technology, Nautilus Institute

SUMMARY

In a conventional conflict between the United States and China or Russia, each belligerent might attack the other’s command, control, communication, and intelligence (C3I) capabilities to gain a war-fighting advantage. However, because a number of C3I assets are dual-use, such attacks would degrade the target’s nuclear command-and-control system, creating serious risks of inadvertent escalation. Looking forward, at least four factors will influence the severity of the risks created by such entanglement.

First, geopolitical developments will have indirect effects, including altering (for better or worse) the likelihood of war, Second, improvements in nonnuclear weapons, such as the development of long-range hypersonic gliders, could increase the threat posed to nuclear C3I capabilities. Moreover, because early-warning assets involved in nuclear operations might be able to track or nuclear doctrines could change, including by increasing or reducing the role accorded to attacks on C3I assets. Finally, unilateral or cooperative risk-mitigation measures could be implemented. Unilateral measures are the most promising under current political circumstances and could be as simple as raising awareness of the risks associated with entanglement within defense and military establishments.

This paper has an accompanying Fourth Leg podcast: Grand Tactics and the Thin Skin of Civilization

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