Virtual Library

Our virtual library is an online repository of all of the reports, papers, and briefings that IST has produced, as well as works that have influenced our thinking.

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Op-ed

ROOST Reminds Us Why Open Source Tools Matter

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Reports

Navigating AI Compliance, Part 2: Risk Mitigation Strategies for Safeguarding Against Future Failures

Mariami Tkeshelashvili, Tiffany Saade

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Reports

Deterring the Abuse of U.S. IaaS Products: Recommendations for a Consortium Approach

Steve Kelly, Tiffany Saade

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Podcasts

TechnologIST Talks: Looking Back and Looking Ahead: Deep Dive on the New Cybersecurity Executive Order

Carole House, Megan Stifel, and Steve Kelly

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Podcasts

TechnologIST Talks: The Offense-Defense Balance

Philip Reiner and Heather Adkins

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Reports

The Generative Identity Initiative: Exploring Generative AI’s Impact on Cognition, Society, and the Future

Gabrielle Tran, Eric Davis

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Podcasts

TechnologIST Talks: A Transatlantic Perspective on Quantum Tech

Megan Stifel and Markus Pflitsch

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

SUBMIT CONTENT

Nuclear Hotlines: Origins, Evolution, Applications

Steven E. Miller

SUMMARY

Hotlines can serve as essential firebreaks between accident, miscalculation, miscommunication, and the outbreak of nuclear war. They enable timely, direct, and confidential communication between adversaries so that states can avoid conflict and de-escalate crises.

In the nearly sixty years since the establishment of a nuclear hotline between Washington and Moscow, hotlines have proliferated to connect many states, at many levels of government, and for a variety of political-military purposes. Hotlines figure prominently in risk reduction strategies today. Yet for hotlines to serve their purposes in the 21st century, stakeholders need to better understand what hotlines do, their effectiveness, and how they can keep pace with modern information and communication technologies.

This paper by Dr. Steven E. Miller gives an overview of experiences to-date with nuclear hotlines. It reviews the history of the US-Russia hotline, describes the ways that hotlines can be used or misused, and charts how the hotline concept has evolved and propagated to help states manage international crises. The paper shows hotlines as important, if imperfect, tools for avoiding nuclear conflict.

KEY FINDINGS

  • The hotline concept has evolved to a variety of forms and settings, suggesting a broad utility.
  • Hotlines can enable nuclear-armed rivals to communicate directly and effectively at the highest levels in all circumstances, whether crisis or war, in order to minimize escalation, retain control of dangerous situations, and inoculate against potentially disastrous miscommunication or misunderstanding.
  • The impact of hotlines will depend on how they are used, whether to minimize risks and de-escalate crises or to promote coercive pressure and play diplomatic games.

This paper was commissioned by the Stanley Center, in partnership with the Institute for Security and Technology (IST) and the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, as a part of a workshop on “Nuclear Hotlines: Practice and Contemporary Considerations.”

To dive deeper into this discussion, listen to our accompanying The Fourth Leg podcast with Steve E. Miller: Communication Over Escalation.

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