Virtual Library

Our research repositories present a collection of open-source resources that showcase research and analysis that has directly influenced our initiatives. Non-IST publications are copyrighted by external authors not affiliated with IST.

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Reports

To the Point of Failure: Identifying Failure Points for Crisis Communications Systems

Leah Walker, Alexa Wehsener

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Reports

Mapping the Ransomware Payment Ecosystem: A Comprehensive Visualization of the Process and Participants

Zoë Brammer

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Reports

Plan maestro de defensa contra los programas de secuestro

Grupo de Trabajo sobre Programas de Secuestro

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Reports

Cyber Incident Reporting Framework

Cyber Threat Alliance, Institute for Security and Technology

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Reports

Digital Tools, Cognition, and Democracy: A Review of the Literature

Zoë Brammer, Sage Miller, Leah Walker

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Reports

Reasoning: How digital technologies influence decision making and judgment

Stephanie Rodriguez

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Reports

Attention: How digital technologies influence what we notice, what we focus on, and how we learn

Stephanie Rodriguez

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

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Virtual Event and Live Q&A with Mr. Nand Mulchandani, Acting Director of the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center

Nuclear Hotlines: Origins, Evolution, Applications

Steven E. Miller

SUMMARY

Hotlines can serve as essential firebreaks between accident, miscalculation, miscommunication, and the outbreak of nuclear war. They enable timely, direct, and confidential communication between adversaries so that states can avoid conflict and de-escalate crises.

In the nearly sixty years since the establishment of a nuclear hotline between Washington and Moscow, hotlines have proliferated to connect many states, at many levels of government, and for a variety of political-military purposes. Hotlines figure prominently in risk reduction strategies today. Yet for hotlines to serve their purposes in the 21st century, stakeholders need to better understand what hotlines do, their effectiveness, and how they can keep pace with modern information and communication technologies.

This paper by Dr. Steven E. Miller gives an overview of experiences to-date with nuclear hotlines. It reviews the history of the US-Russia hotline, describes the ways that hotlines can be used or misused, and charts how the hotline concept has evolved and propagated to help states manage international crises. The paper shows hotlines as important, if imperfect, tools for avoiding nuclear conflict.

KEY FINDINGS

  • The hotline concept has evolved to a variety of forms and settings, suggesting a broad utility.
  • Hotlines can enable nuclear-armed rivals to communicate directly and effectively at the highest levels in all circumstances, whether crisis or war, in order to minimize escalation, retain control of dangerous situations, and inoculate against potentially disastrous miscommunication or misunderstanding.
  • The impact of hotlines will depend on how they are used, whether to minimize risks and de-escalate crises or to promote coercive pressure and play diplomatic games.

This paper was commissioned by the Stanley Center, in partnership with the Institute for Security and Technology (IST) and the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, as a part of a workshop on “Nuclear Hotlines: Practice and Contemporary Considerations.”

To dive deeper into this discussion, listen to our accompanying The Fourth Leg podcast with Steve E. Miller: Communication Over Escalation.

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