Virtual Library

Our virtual library is an online repository of all of the reports, papers, and briefings that IST has produced, as well as works that have influenced our thinking.

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Fact Sheet

White House Releases Outbound Investment Executive Order

Strategic Balancing Initiative

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Reports

Strengthening Resilience in 21st Century Crisis Communications

Alexa Wehsener, Sylvia Mishra

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Fact Sheet

DoD Releases the National Defense Science and Technology Strategy

Strategic Balancing Initiative

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Reports

Mapping Threat Actor Behavior in the Ransomware Payment Ecosystem: A Mini-Pilot

Zoë Brammer

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Reports

May 2023 Progress Report: Ransomware Task Force: Gaining Ground

Ransomware Task Force

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Reports

Castles Built on Sand: Towards Securing the Open-Source Software Ecosystem

Zoë Brammer, Silas Cutler, Marc Rogers, Megan Stifel

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Reports

Cyber Incident Reporting Framework: Global Edition

Cyber Threat Alliance, Institute for Security and Technology

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

SUBMIT CONTENT

Nuclear Hotlines: Origins, Evolution, Applications

Steven E. Miller

SUMMARY

Hotlines can serve as essential firebreaks between accident, miscalculation, miscommunication, and the outbreak of nuclear war. They enable timely, direct, and confidential communication between adversaries so that states can avoid conflict and de-escalate crises.

In the nearly sixty years since the establishment of a nuclear hotline between Washington and Moscow, hotlines have proliferated to connect many states, at many levels of government, and for a variety of political-military purposes. Hotlines figure prominently in risk reduction strategies today. Yet for hotlines to serve their purposes in the 21st century, stakeholders need to better understand what hotlines do, their effectiveness, and how they can keep pace with modern information and communication technologies.

This paper by Dr. Steven E. Miller gives an overview of experiences to-date with nuclear hotlines. It reviews the history of the US-Russia hotline, describes the ways that hotlines can be used or misused, and charts how the hotline concept has evolved and propagated to help states manage international crises. The paper shows hotlines as important, if imperfect, tools for avoiding nuclear conflict.

KEY FINDINGS

  • The hotline concept has evolved to a variety of forms and settings, suggesting a broad utility.
  • Hotlines can enable nuclear-armed rivals to communicate directly and effectively at the highest levels in all circumstances, whether crisis or war, in order to minimize escalation, retain control of dangerous situations, and inoculate against potentially disastrous miscommunication or misunderstanding.
  • The impact of hotlines will depend on how they are used, whether to minimize risks and de-escalate crises or to promote coercive pressure and play diplomatic games.

This paper was commissioned by the Stanley Center, in partnership with the Institute for Security and Technology (IST) and the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, as a part of a workshop on “Nuclear Hotlines: Practice and Contemporary Considerations.”

To dive deeper into this discussion, listen to our accompanying The Fourth Leg podcast with Steve E. Miller: Communication Over Escalation.

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