Archive

escalation

Securing the Signal: Mitigation Strategies to Strengthen Crisis Communication Channels

Securing the Signal: Mitigation Strategies to Strengthen Crisis Communication Channels

As global norms are challenged and emerging technologies accelerate, crisis communication systems between nuclear-armed states face urgent new threats. This report identifies four critical scenarios and outlines a matched set of mitigation strategies designed to reinforce the reliability of crisis communications in high-stakes environments.

CATALINK, cold war, crisis communications, electromagnetic pulse, EMP, escalation, miscalculation, nuclear

May 28, 2025

Artificial Intelligence Integration in NC3: Implications for the Global Nuclear Order

September 9, 2024 3:00 pm

Artificial Intelligence Integration in NC3: Implications for the Global Nuclear Order

IST hosted a side event at the 2024 REAIM Summit in Seoul, South Korea on the intersection of AI and nuclear weapons and its implications for nuclear deterrence and strategic stability.

AI, artificial intelligence, decision making, deterrence, escalation, miscommunication, NC3, nuclear, strategic stability

September 9, 2024

Hotline Between Two Koreas: Status, Limitations and Future Tasks

Hotline Between Two Koreas: Status, Limitations and Future Tasks

In this paper, Moon Chung-in and Boo Seung-Chan provide historical context on the hotlines linking South and North Korea and point to the lessons that can be learned from the decades-long effort.

CATALINK, communication, communication link, crisis, crisis management, escalation, history, hotlines, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk, NC3, nuclear, nuclear security, nuclear weapon, nuclear weapon states, nuclear weapons, nuclear-use, secure communications

December 17, 2020

Building Communications Norms Across Nuclear C2

Building Communications Norms Across Nuclear C2

Dr. Salma Shaheen stresses the importance of establishing new norms, constructing new practices, and securing reliant communications between nuclear-armed states before a potential crisis. Shaheen reaffirms the need for a direct communication link between global leaders to facilitate quick and efficient communications between nuclear-armed states — a capability she cites as essential for escalation control and nuclear weapons reduction, with a direct impact on crisis aversion and thus global security.

CATALINK, communication, control, crisis, crisis management, escalation, history, hotlines, NC3, nuclear, nuclear security, nuclear weapon, nuclear-use, secure communications

November 24, 2020

Nuclear Hotlines: Origins, Evolution, Applications

Nuclear Hotlines: Origins, Evolution, Applications

Dr. Steven E. Miller gives an overview of experiences to-date with nuclear hotlines. He reviews the history of the US-Russia hotline, describes the ways that hotlines can be used or misused, and charts how the hotline concept has evolved and propagated to help states manage international crises. Hotlines are important, if imperfect, tools for avoiding nuclear conflict.

CATALINK, crisis, crisis management, de-escalation, escalation, history, hotlines, NC3, nuclear, nuclear security, nuclear weapon, nuclear-use, secure communications

October 28, 2020

Communication Disruption Attacks on NC3

Communication Disruption Attacks on NC3

In an essay out of the workshop "Last Chance: Communicating at the Nuclear Brink," Paul Bracken argues, "in a nuclear world we should be careful about attacking enemy communications because doing so leads to greater risks of uncontrolled escalation. The worst possible situation is the one the United States is now in, that is, to not be clear in our own minds about what we are doing when it comes to disrupting communications.”

CATALINK, communication, communication attacks, electromagnetic pulse, electronic warfare, escalation, military, NC3, nuclear, red line, retaliation, strike, target, targeting, United States, vulnerability

May 28, 2020

Cyber Operations and Nuclear Weapons

Cyber Operations and Nuclear Weapons

In Cyber Operations and Nuclear Weapons, Jon Lindsay argues that "offensive cyber operations targeting NC3 introduce a number of under-appreciated risks of organizational breakdown, decision making confusion, and rational miscalculation in a nuclear crisis.”

June 20, 2019

Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications Systems of the People’s Republic of China

Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications Systems of the People’s Republic of China

Fiona Cunningham describes the origins of China’s NC3 system and its primary role in supporting China’s land-based missile force. She outlines recent developments including mobility, “informatization” and automation of parts of the NC3 system, pending deployment of nuclear missile submarines, early warning systems, evolving organizational structure, and cultural factors that shape China’s NC3 system and its orientation towards negative versus positive control.

arms race, China, crisis instability, emergency, escalation, modernization, NC3, nuclear, red line, stability

July 18, 2019

NC3 and Crisis Instability: Growing Dangers in the 21st Century

NC3 and Crisis Instability: Growing Dangers in the 21st Century

Daryl Press focuses on the growing threats to nuclear command and control and communication (NC3) systems around the world and the links between vulnerable NC3 and strategic instability due to the risky steps that nuclear weapons states may adopt to protect their arsenals during crises or wars.

October 17, 2019