Virtual Library

Our virtual library is an online repository of all of the reports, papers, and briefings that IST has produced, as well as works that have influenced our thinking.

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Reports

Ransomware Task Force: Doubling Down

Ransomware Task Force

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Reports

Information Sharing in the Ransomware Payment Ecosystem: Exploring the Delta Between Best Practices and Existing Mechanisms

Zoë Brammer

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Memo

Testimony: Held for Ransom: How Ransomware Endangers Our Financial System

Megan Stifel

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Memo

Roadmap to Potential Prohibition of Ransomware Payments

Ransomware Task Force Co-Chairs

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Reports

Unlocking U.S. Technological Competitiveness: Evaluating Initial Solutions to Public-Private Misalignments

Ben Purser, Pavneet Singh

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Reports

Public Private Partnerships to Combat Ransomware: An inquiry into three case studies and best practices

Elizabeth Vish, Georgeanela Flores Bustamante

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Reports

Unlocking U.S. Technological Competitiveness: Public-Private Misalignments in Biotechnology, Energy, and Quantum Sectors

Ben Purser, Pavneet Singh

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

SUBMIT CONTENT

Forecasting the AI and Nuclear Landscape

Alexa Wehsener, Ryan Beck, Leah Walker, Lawrence Phillips, Alex Leader

SUMMARY

This report, the product of collaboration between IST and Metaculus, aims to assess the risks of escalation between the U.S. and China, including by the integration of AI into NC3. We developed questions across three categories, listed below, focusing primarily on a five-year forecasting horizon. These questions, along with the probabilities estimated by the Pro Forecasters, provide a valuable starting point for quantifying the risks and opportunities in the AI and nuclear landscape.

AI-Nuclear Integration: 

  1. Will the U.S. and/or China have integrated an artificial neural network into their nuclear command, control and communications systems before 2028, according to publicly available information as of 2038? 
  2. When will it be reported that the U.S. and/or China have fielded weaponry on an unmanned naval vehicle? 
  3. What will the share of high-impact AI publications from China be in 2027? 

Measures of US-China Tensions:

  1. Will China attempt to undertake kinetic actions in contested territory before 2028? 
  2. Will there be a military casualty caused by an air or maritime incident between U.S. and Chinese military forces before 2028? 

Nuclear Use:

  1. Will China formally abandon their “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before 2028? 
  2. Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028? 
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