Virtual Library

Our research repositories present a collection of open-source resources that showcase research and analysis that has directly influenced our initiatives. Non-IST publications are copyrighted by external authors not affiliated with IST.

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Op-ed

The Nuclear Risk Reduction Approach: A Useful Path Forward for Crisis Mitigation

Sylvia Mishra

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Reports

Nuclear Crisis Communications: Mapping Risk Reduction Implementation Pathways

Sylvia Mishra

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Reports

Towards a Stronger Ukrainian Media Ecosystem

Leah Walker, Alexa Wehsener, Natalia Antonova

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Op-ed

Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital must win over Silicon Valley

Leah Walker and Alexa Wehsener

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Fact Sheet

DOD Establishes the Office of Strategic Capital

Strategic Balancing Initiative

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Video

Cyber Resilience and Insurance Innovation

Blueprint for Ransomware Defense Webinar Series | Monica Shokrai, Davis Hake, Prashant Pai, and John Banghart

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Reports

To the Point of Failure: Identifying Failure Points for Crisis Communications Systems

Leah Walker, Alexa Wehsener

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

SUBMIT CONTENT

Forecasting the AI and Nuclear Landscape

Alexa Wehsener, Ryan Beck, Leah Walker, Lawrence Phillips, Alex Leader

SUMMARY

This report, the product of collaboration between IST and Metaculus, aims to assess the risks of escalation between the U.S. and China, including by the integration of AI into NC3. We developed questions across three categories, listed below, focusing primarily on a five-year forecasting horizon. These questions, along with the probabilities estimated by the Pro Forecasters, provide a valuable starting point for quantifying the risks and opportunities in the AI and nuclear landscape.

AI-Nuclear Integration: 

  1. Will the U.S. and/or China have integrated an artificial neural network into their nuclear command, control and communications systems before 2028, according to publicly available information as of 2038? 
  2. When will it be reported that the U.S. and/or China have fielded weaponry on an unmanned naval vehicle? 
  3. What will the share of high-impact AI publications from China be in 2027? 

Measures of US-China Tensions:

  1. Will China attempt to undertake kinetic actions in contested territory before 2028? 
  2. Will there be a military casualty caused by an air or maritime incident between U.S. and Chinese military forces before 2028? 

Nuclear Use:

  1. Will China formally abandon their “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before 2028? 
  2. Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028? 
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