SUMMARY

This report, the product of collaboration between IST and Metaculus, aims to assess the risks of escalation between the U.S. and China, including by the integration of AI into NC3. We developed questions across three categories, listed below, focusing primarily on a five-year forecasting horizon. These questions, along with the probabilities estimated by the Pro Forecasters, provide a valuable starting point for quantifying the risks and opportunities in the AI and nuclear landscape.

AI-Nuclear Integration: 

1. Will the U.S. and/or China have integrated an artificial neural network into their nuclear command, control and communications systems before 2028, according to publicly available information as of 2038? 
2. When will it be reported that the U.S. and/or China have fielded weaponry on an unmanned naval vehicle? 
3. What will the share of high-impact AI publications from China be in 2027? 

Measures of US-China Tensions:

1. Will China attempt to undertake kinetic actions in contested territory before 2028? 
2. Will there be a military casualty caused by an air or maritime incident between U.S. and Chinese military forces before 2028? 

Nuclear Use:

1. Will China formally abandon their “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before 2028? 
2. Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?