Virtual Library

Our research repositories present a collection of open-source resources that showcase research and analysis that has directly influenced our initiatives. Non-IST publications are copyrighted by external authors not affiliated with IST.

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Reports

Forecasting the AI and Nuclear Landscape

Alexa Wehsener, Ryan Beck, Leah Walker, Lawrence Phillips, Alex Leader

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Reports

Towards a Safer Ukrainian Media Ecosystem and Civil Society: How OSINT Can Help

Natalia Antonova, Roman Osadchuk, Lukas Andriukaitis

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Reports

ДО БЕЗПЕЧНІШОЇ ЕКОСИСТЕМИ УКРАЇНСЬКИХ ЗМІ ТА ГРОМАДЯНСЬКОГО СУСПІЛЬСТВА:
ЯК МОЖЕ ДОПОМОГТИ РОЗВІДКА ВІДКРИТИХ ДЖЕРЕЛ (OSINT)

Наталія Антонова, Роман Осадчук, Лукас Андріукайтіс

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Reports

Playing Telephone — Hoax Calls and the Insecurity of Leader to Leader Communications

Leah Walker

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Reports

Atlas of Crisis Communications: Nuclear States

Leah Walker, Andrew Facini

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Reports

Combatting Ransomware: A Comprehensive Framework for Action: Key Recommendations from the Ransomware Task Force

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Reports

Future Digital Threats to Democracy – Trends and Drivers

Vera Zakem, Alexa Wehsener, Nina M. Miller

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We also welcome additional suggestions from readers, and will consider adding further resources as so much of our work has come through crowd-sourced collaboration already. If, for any chance you are an author whose work is listed here and you do not wish it to be listed in our repository, please, let us know.

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Virtual Event and Live Q&A with Mr. Nand Mulchandani, Acting Director of the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center

Forecasting the AI and Nuclear Landscape

Alexa Wehsener, Ryan Beck, Leah Walker, Lawrence Phillips, Alex Leader

SUMMARY

This report, the product of collaboration between IST and Metaculus, aims to assess the risks of escalation between the U.S. and China, including by the integration of AI into NC3. We developed questions across three categories, listed below, focusing primarily on a five-year forecasting horizon. These questions, along with the probabilities estimated by the Pro Forecasters, provide a valuable starting point for quantifying the risks and opportunities in the AI and nuclear landscape.

AI-Nuclear Integration: 

  1. Will the U.S. and/or China have integrated an artificial neural network into their nuclear command, control and communications systems before 2028, according to publicly available information as of 2038? 
  2. When will it be reported that the U.S. and/or China have fielded weaponry on an unmanned naval vehicle? 
  3. What will the share of high-impact AI publications from China be in 2027? 

Measures of US-China Tensions:

  1. Will China attempt to undertake kinetic actions in contested territory before 2028? 
  2. Will there be a military casualty caused by an air or maritime incident between U.S. and Chinese military forces before 2028? 

Nuclear Use:

  1. Will China formally abandon their “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before 2028? 
  2. Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028? 
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