Archive

Innovation and Catastrophic Risk

Integrating novel technical expertise to increase global stability and assess emerging risks

Searching for ways to mitigate the most severe risks introduced by technology, including those that pose existential threats to society, and striving to make technology itself a solution.

Focus area page

The German Federal Foreign Office Commits Support to the Institute for Security and Technology’s CATALINK Initiative

The German Federal Foreign Office Commits Support to the Institute for Security and Technology’s CATALINK Initiative

The German Federal Foreign Office has generously provided a new grant in support for the Institute for Security and Technology’s CATALINK initiative. This funding will allow the organization to expand its work designing solutions to enhance the security of the global commons.

announcements, CATALINK, crisis communications

July 29, 2022

Playing Telephone: Hoax Calls and the Insecurity of Leader to Leader Communications

Playing Telephone: Hoax Calls and the Insecurity of Leader to Leader Communications

A database of hoax calls between leaders that illustrates the importance of secure, trusted crisis communications.

Innovation and Catastrophic Risk

July 20, 2022

Atlas of Crisis Communications: Nuclear States

Atlas of Crisis Communications: Nuclear States

Leah Walker and Andrew Facini present an atlas of hotlines between states with nuclear weapons, part of IST’s work efforts to reinvigorate broader nuclear crisis control through research and development aimed at identifying and solving practical nuclear risk reduction gaps.

atlas, CATALINK, crisis communications, hotline, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk, nuclear risk reduction

July 18, 2022

The Role of Crisis Communications in the Russo-Ukrainian War

The Role of Crisis Communications in the Russo-Ukrainian War

The Russo-Ukrainian War has not been tempered nor solved by the existence of crisis communications between nuclear weapon states. However, the existence of the senior and tactical level deconfliction lines may continue to play a role in limiting escalatory action between these adversaries.

crisis communications, hotlines, NC3, Russo-Ukraine War

May 18, 2022

North Korea, Testing, and the Failures of Containment

March 15, 2022 3:30 pm

North Korea, Testing, and the Failures of Containment

North Korea is undeniably a nuclear weapons power, having repeatedly demonstrated both its explosive technology and delivery systems—so what is Pyongyang trying to achieve with ongoing tests and provocations? With existential security seemingly on the line, is continued proliferation a give-in, or can new diplomatic approaches be found? And what can be expected in the decade to come?

North Korea, nuclear proliferation, nuclear weapons

March 15, 2022

In the News, Podcast

Strategic Stability: Sahil Shah on Press the Button

Sahil Shah joined Ploughshare Fund’s flagship podcast Press the Button to discuss strategic stability, transatlantic relations, and the need for reliable communications links in all nuclear contexts.

crisis communications, JCPOA, nuclear command, risk reduction

October 11, 2021

Detangling Nuclear Command and Control: CJCS Milley, Sole Authority, and the Future of American NC2

October 5, 2021 3:00 pm

Detangling Nuclear Command and Control: CJCS Milley, Sole Authority, and the Future of American NC2

September’s revelations about CJCS Milley’s actions in the days following the January 6 attack on the Capitol reignited the debate about American nuclear command and control, and renewed questions about the President’s sole authority to launch nuclear weapons. On October 5, 2021, IST convened experts to discuss the state of NC2 in the United States.

chain of command, NC2, nuclear command and control

October 5, 2021

The CATALINK Brief

The CATALINK Brief

Learn more about the CATALINK initiative, which combines radical simplicity, open source design, formal methods for NC3, and international collaboration and outreach.

CATALINK, hotlines, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk, nuclear

August 1, 2021

Zoom Won’t Stop A Nuclear War

In the News, Op-ed

Zoom Won’t Stop A Nuclear War

In an article for Foreign Policy, Sahil Shah and Leah Walker make the case that although the red telephone is gone, a new generation of nuclear hotlines is sorely needed to manage international crises.

CATALINK, crisis communications, India, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk, nuclear hotlines, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, Pakistan, Soviet Union

April 19, 2021

Back Story with Dana Lewis: Nuclear Hotlines

In the News, Podcast

Back Story with Dana Lewis: Nuclear Hotlines

Philip Reiner joined the podcast Back Story with Dana Lewis to discuss a proposal for a nuclear hotline for nations with nuclear weapons.

CATALINK, crisis communications, hotline, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk, nuclear, nuclear weapons, Soviet Union

March 3, 2021

Hotline Between Two Koreas: Status, Limitations and Future Tasks

Hotline Between Two Koreas: Status, Limitations and Future Tasks

In this paper, Moon Chung-in and Boo Seung-Chan provide historical context on the hotlines linking South and North Korea and point to the lessons that can be learned from the decades-long effort.

CATALINK, communication, communication link, crisis, crisis management, escalation, history, hotlines, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk, NC3, nuclear, nuclear security, nuclear weapon, nuclear weapon states, nuclear weapons, nuclear-use, secure communications

December 17, 2020

Building Communications Norms Across Nuclear C2

Building Communications Norms Across Nuclear C2

Dr. Salma Shaheen stresses the importance of establishing new norms, constructing new practices, and securing reliant communications between nuclear-armed states before a potential crisis. Shaheen reaffirms the need for a direct communication link between global leaders to facilitate quick and efficient communications between nuclear-armed states — a capability she cites as essential for escalation control and nuclear weapons reduction, with a direct impact on crisis aversion and thus global security.

CATALINK, communication, control, crisis, crisis management, escalation, history, hotlines, NC3, nuclear, nuclear security, nuclear weapon, nuclear-use, secure communications

November 24, 2020

Why We Study Accidents: Complex System Accidents and Their Broader Security Implications

Why We Study Accidents: Complex System Accidents and Their Broader Security Implications

Significant risk reduction can be achieved through understanding complexity and normal accidents. An increased understanding of these accidents will afford deeper insight into the vulnerabilities and risks that exist in the more technically advanced militaries of the 21st century and will give valuable foresight into the increasingly digitized, networked, and complicated systems of the future.

complex accidents, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk, mosaic warfare

November 13, 2020

Communication Over Escalation

Communication Over Escalation

In this episode of The Fourth Leg, Philip Reiner and Peter Hayes are joined by nuclear weapons and conflict resolution expert, Steven E. Miller, to discuss the historical significance and evolution of nuclear communications.

cold war, crisis communications, deescalation, hotlines, nuclear communications

October 27, 2020

Formally Verified

Formally Verified

This episode of The Fourth Leg features Adam Wick, one of the world’s leading experts on secure operating systems design and implementation.

crisis communication, formal methods, formal proofs, NC3, operating systems, security

September 17, 2020

Formal Methods for NC3 Systems

Formal Methods for NC3 Systems

What if we told you there is a very concrete way of updating and securing the most complex NC3 systems? Adam Wick makes the case for future NC3 protocol descriptions "to include not only a broad description of the protocol and its goals, but also an executable specification of the protocol. He continues, "Given the sensitivity of these systems, we believe that the use of proof is critical."

communication, control, crisis management, formal methods, mathematics, NC3, nuclear, nuclear security, nuclear weapons, nuclear-use

September 17, 2020