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An Engineering Perspective on Avoiding Inadvertent Nuclear War

An Engineering Perspective on Avoiding Inadvertent Nuclear War

In "An Engineering Perspective on Avoiding Inadvertent Nuclear War," Nancy Leveson argues that using conservative techniques and avoiding unnecessarily complex software in critical functions in NC3 systems circumvented nuclear catastrophe in the past. She calls for a new approach that avoids gratuitous complexity; emphasizes less, not more technology; and improves NC3 systems.

AI, aircraft, aviation, complexity, human operator, inoperability, interconnection, interdependency, isolation, NC3, nuclear, software, spacecraft, Systems Theory

July 25, 2019

Command and Control of Nuclear Weapons in India

Command and Control of Nuclear Weapons in India

M.V. Ramana and Lauren Borja analyze the state of nuclear command and control in India, concluding that the state of Indian NC3 “has been shaped by an ongoing rivalry between civilian authorities and the military."

accident, communication, control, decision-making, defense, delivery vehicle, deterrence, early warning, India, military, NC3, nuclear, Pakistan, stability, submarine, survivability, United States, wargaming

August 1, 2019

Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications: U.S. Country Profile

In "Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications: U.S. Country Profile," Jeffrey Larsen argues that, for the last 75 years, the deterrence forces of the United States have relied on the credible threat of nuclear weapons use to prevent adversarial attacks.

authority, C2, command, communication, control, deterrence, NC3, nuclear, policy, president, stability, strategic, Strategy, United States, US, World War II

August 22, 2019

The Non-State Dimensions of Nuclear Command, Control, Communications

The Non-State Dimensions of Nuclear Command, Control, Communications

Dr. Gary Ackerman introduces how violent non-state actors (VSNAs) may approach the command and control of nuclear weapons and suggests that understanding the complexity presented by VNSA NC3 entails considering traditional concepts of state NC3 and dynamics that are unique to non-state actors driven by a variety of goals and confronting a different set of constraints from those of states.

August 29, 2019

NC3 Decision Making: Individual Versus Group Process

NC3 Decision Making: Individual Versus Group Process

Dr. Alex Wallerstein sketches a framework for thinking about how concentrated nuclear use authority should be at the top. While he discusses specific U.S. proposals for reform in response to recent domestic debates, the scope of his analysis is uniquely global and includes a comparative analysis of the approach of all nine nuclear weapons states.

civil-military, cold war, congress, Constitution, deterrence, enrichment, migration, NC3, nuclear codes, Senate, stability, status quo, STRATCOM, Strategy, UK

August 8, 2019

Emerging Technologies, Emerging Challenges: The Potential Employment of New Technologies in Future PLA NC3

Emerging Technologies, Emerging Challenges: The Potential Employment of New Technologies in Future PLA NC3

Elsa Kania assesses how emerging technologies—including artificial intelligence, cloud computing, fifth-generation telecommunications, and quantum communications—may affect China’s NC3. Kania concludes: “Although certain of these technologies could enhance China’s confidence in its NC3 in ways that may prove stabilizing, there are also reasons for concern that the potential introduction of such complex, untested technologies could also create new risks and exacerbate the threat of miscalculation.”

September 5, 2019

Exploiting Emotions

Exploiting Emotions

Digital systems exploit and manipulate emotions by design. Emotions prompt people to use digital tools, engage with content, products, and services, respond to advertisements, stay on or return to digital platforms, and even take action offline as a result of online experience. The design of the digital environment, especially its visual nature, also heightens user emotions, often creating an addictive cycle. Because emotions affect how we process, engage with, and often act upon information, they play a central role in the relationship between digital tools and democracy.

democracy, Geopolitics of Technology, cognition, attention, DCDI, memory, reasoning, social, addictive, networks

Rewired: How digital technologies shape cognition and democracy

Rewired: How digital technologies shape cognition and democracy

The Digital Cognition & Democracy Initiative is investigating how digital technologies affect human cognition, and what those effects mean for democracy. Rewired by Leah Walker examines different key themes that have emerged in our DCDI research and working meetings with coalition members. This series is meant to illustrate the depth of the digitally influenced cognition problem, and illuminate how we are thinking about these issues.

democracy, Geopolitics of Technology, cognition, attention, DCDI, trust, memory, reasoning, emotions, critical thinking, friction, information overload

Philip Reiner on Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications

In the News, Podcasts

Philip Reiner on Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications

Philip Reiner joined Gus Docker, host of the Future of Life Institute podcast, to talk about how nuclear command and control systems work, how they might fail, and what can be done to improve them.

NC3, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk

Forecasting the AI and Nuclear Landscape

Forecasting the AI and Nuclear Landscape

This report, the product of a partnership between IST and Metaculus, aims to assess the risks of escalation between the U.S. and China, including by the integration of AI into NC3.

AI, nuclear, China, control, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk, command, communications